Grid Effect

With the storied series winding down, one of the more engaging questions this television season is how will Tony Soprano die. While I think this is presumptuous to assume that he will, I have always held steady that something tragic will happen to someone close to him (namely AJ or Meadow, probably AJ) and that would be far worse than death for Tony, it is always a great conversation piece. So without further ado, here are Grid Effect’s odds on who’s most likely to claim the anti-hero’s life:

AJ/Meadow: 10,000,000/1
Despite what might be loosely described as a tumultuous upbringing, to suggest either of his kids is despicible enough to kill their own father is laughable. AJ, despite his incapacity to follow in his fathers footsteps, is completely enamored with him. Meadow and her occasional rejection to her lineage with organized crime (particularly when Jackie Jr. was murdered), steadily throws a constant barrage of inane excuses for her Tony. Her undying loyalty leads me to believe that murdering her father is fairly improbable.

Silvio: 5,000,000/1
Unless someone can break the impenetrable force that is his hair to insert some sort of computer chip into his brain that manipulates his actions, Silvio is not making a move. If you recall, while Tony was in his coma, Sil was the default leader and did not take to well to it (I seem to remember an old man being rushed off to the hospital with an asthma attack). Outside of a slight rebellion in season four when Tony decided to fast track Chrissy over what some may consider more deserving candidates, Silvio seems to be the only reliable henchman that Tony has at the moment.

Cancer: 100,000/1
This would seem plausible, an anticlimactic demise from a disease that Tony and David Chase both seem morbidly obsessed with. Only problem being, there isn’t enough time left in the series. Unless he was sprung with a diagnosis that we we’re not made privy to in earlier seasons, this is uncertain. Then again, his most recent gambling issues might parallel Johnny Sack’s smoking in his last days (Trying to die the same way he lived: in control). But still, it seems far fetched.

Bobby Bacala: 200/1
In short, Bobby is scared shitless of him. He may have gotten the better of him in a meaningless fist fight (Well, meaningless to everyone except Tony), but almost for the same reasons AJ would never kill his father, Bacala would never kill his father-in-law. I give Bobby the much higher probability because Tony “popped his cherry” by strong arming him into murdering that French/Canadian in “Sopranos Home Movies”. While that would be sweet, sweet poetic justice. Still I am skeptical that Bobby has it in him. Much like AJ, sometimes weakness is healthy for the soul, despite how crippling it can be; it really all depends on how much influence Janice has over him.

Hesh: 175/1
Before last week I would have never even thought of this. But if Tony builds up an insurmountable debt, this could cause the New Jersey faction to take it personally.

Paulie: 150/1
Will there be any lasting implications to that tension filled lam to Miami? Probably not. Paulie has this weird bouillabaisse of admiration, protection and fear he illicits towards Tony. But for someone so simplistic and imbalanced, the more complicated his relationship is with someone, the more likely he is to fly off the handle. For the most part, I think we’re done with Paulie (after “Remember When”, I think we’re supposed to just assume he’s going to turn out like Junior), but he’s been known to stray in the past and he’s the second biggest most likely sociopath in the series. The title of first goes to…

Janice: 75/1
This is somewhat tentative. If Tony is killed and Bobby pulls the trigger but it’s at Janice’s insistence, is the blood on her hands or is it more so on Bobby’s? In that case, shouldn’t they be grouped together ala AJ and Meadow? I am ranking it this way, because I feel Janice is more likely to kill him without any assistance from her husband than Bobby is without any assistance from Janice, so she gts the higher ranking. Of course, if you place a bet in Vegas, I doubt they see it the same way.

But the case for Janice is an interesting one. Considering she murdered the man that she was persuading to murder her brother in season two (Richie Aprile) because he hit her once. Plus the fact she is her mother’s daughter and Tony’s mother tried to have him killed, it would make sense. But I think the chance for isolation between these two where he provokes Janice enough for her to consider getting a gun and shooting her brother “in the heat of the moment” so to speak, is rare. It would have to be pre-meditated and Janice, while I think she is psychologically damaged to the extent she would follow through with it, isn’t nearly cunning enough.

Himself: 60/1
Obviously, Tony struggling with who he is and what he does has been his internal struggle. His bouts with depression have been well documented and his self-loathing in these past three episodes is abundant. This, to be honest, should be higher, but since I think he’s as concerned with maintaining his image as much as anything else. The only thing that could onset suicide would be something catastrophic happening to Carmela, Meadow or AJ.

Chrissy: 25/1
And Tony is just as susceptible to killing him, if not more so. The be all end all of this relationship has been predicated on mistrust, fear and tradition. And now, resentment and regret. Whereas there used to be an immense amount of respect Chris had for Tony, I think that’s evaporated. Does he actually have the onions to follow through with it? Given all that Tony has done for him (at least in terms of his current lifestyle, Chris resents Tony for introducing him to the mob in the first place), it probably won’t happen. But Chris isn’t completely self-aware at the moment. If he ever goes into therapy, Tony might have a loose cannon on his hands.

Phil Leotrado/NY: 25/1
Considering his hostility to Tony in the past (For the murder of his brother among other things), now that he is regretting his life decisions, this cannot bode well for Tony. It seems apparent that Phil is currently seeking redemption, and murdering the man he believes is responsible for his brothers death is probably the best manner Phil feels he can attain it. A New York-New Jersey war would be an ideal ending for the fan boys, but I think that would result in too much carnage for the tone the series has set in the past few seasons.

Butchie: 20/1
He’s part of New York, so if Phil orders the hit and Butchie does the grunt work, that would be included above. Bus since he’s an angry little fucker, someone as large and powerful as Tony Soprano probably brings out the napoleon complex enough for him to circumvent his current leadership.

Heart Attack: 15/1
Tony has always sought comfort in incredibly fattening meals. And in all three of the most recent episodes he has pined for red meat in some manner or another (Hamburgers in “Sopranos Home Movies”, Philly cheesesteak in “Stage 5″, Steak in “Remember When”) Its been so subtle but so consistent I am placing this as the most likely outcome for Tony, should the outcome be death.

If you’re wondering why there are not higher odds, keep in mind I don’t think he’ll die in the first place, but for a series that is so unpredictable with all its incomplete plot lines and red herrings; fifteen to one is pretty ballsy. I am sure it would piss off their base audience something terrible if Tony’s meets his maker as a result of a lifelong binge on ice cream sundaes, But Chase has made it clear he isn’t concerned with pandering to his audience, which I respect.